How Will Trump as US President Impact India?
The Clinton and Trump campaign offered the world a great spectacle with its never-ending controversies, email hacks, twitter slow down, shocking allegations, dark secrets and the likes! The battle to head one of the most powerful nations in the world was transformed to a reality show contest overnight.
However entertaining, disturbing, or downright unavailing the whole 2016 US election campaign may have seemed, there are graver issues that might change the face of global economy depending on who emerges the victor.
He made it – as the 45th President of America – Donald Trump.
While he blatantly rattles on about his dislikes for one country, without pausing to move on to another, he had nothing really critical to say about India except for his strong inclination towards scraping the H-1B Visa. And as much as some of us may really dislike him; he poses no real threat and will more or less have a positive as well as a negative impact on India as well as its economy.
So, In What Ways Could India Possibly Be Affected?
For The Better?
An Ally in The US
Trump has expressed his dislike for China and Pakistan, both of which have a disputable relationship with India. It is likely that India will face fewer aggravations from its neighbouring countries with a powerful ally in the United States. Additionally, India has shown greater relations with the Republicans than the Democrats in the past.
Better Indo-US Defense
He has made his detest for terrorism clear and has made statements suggesting that Pakistan is one of the most dangerous countries in the world. Further, he also insinuated that the US should closely be working with India to keep a check on this, which may further enhance the Indo-US defence ties.
Good News for Students, Maybe?
“Whether we like that or not… but we educate a lot of people, very smart people. We need those people in the country,” “they are first in their class and they’re from India they go back to India and they set up companies and they make a fortune and they employ lots of people”
Trump portrays himself to be an absolute anti-immigrant. But he has nothing against people ‘smart people’ settling down in the US and contributing to its economy. He will likwly encourage Indian students and entrepreneurs to take up jobs and set up businesses in the country itself rather than shifting back to India and creating bigger companies back home.
Or The Worse?
An End to H-1B Visas & Outsourcing ?
“I will end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labour program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first for every visa and immigration program. No exceptions“.
Trump has shown extreme dislike for the H-1B visa as it allows foreign workers to work for US companies temporarily. He suggests that H-1B is a means to employ cheap labour and not brilliant minds. It is likely that he will increase the wages of the existing H-1B workforce so that there is no scope for employing ‘cheap labour’, thereby ensuring that American citizens get their ‘due’.
Moreover, he is absolutely against outsourcing jobs to India as well as other countries. This would have a major impact on the IT industry (75% of their revenue comes from the US) This would adversely affect the IT industry and the BPO sector among others. He warned that high-tech companies like IBM will be slapped with a higher tax rate if they continue to outsource jobs to foreigners instead of employing locals.
There are chances that he will tighten the laws of the immigration policy, thereby forcing many Indian immigrants from Silicon Valley to head home.
Reduction in Corporate Tax
He promised reductions from 35 % to 15%. This could mean big US companies like Microsoft and IBM will start looking for opportunities back home.
Unlike Clinton, Trump’s win will create a volatile in the Indian market and could pose a threat to India’s currency as well as the stock market.
It cannot be said for sure as to how Donald Trump as the President of the United States will affect Indian economy, as any close follower of the campaign may have noticed his flawed speeches. Statements that he has made, then denied, and then fallen back on again, are proof of his oscillating mind.
With his history of backtracking, the economic climate will likely face uncertainty – just like his wavering statement “Ab Ki Bar Trump Sarkar”. We sure do not know how to react to this one, much less to his unpredictable stance!